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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  November 16, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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see you monday. that does it for us. let's get back to headquarters and "the fast money halftime." all right. good afternoon. welcome today. we are following the developing story down in washington. talks at the white house as you heard between the president and congressional leaders just breaking up a short time ago. reaction immediate in the stock market as stocks rallied. came well off their lows and in positive territory now across the board. let's show you where we stand on this friday on wall street. as we hit the noon hour here, the s&p 500's up one third of a percent. that's the nasdaq good for a gain of 6 points. dow industrials down about 60 points. not that long ago with about a 100-point swing up 47 points now, better than one third of 1% and number of traders with me today. joe, john, simon, steve down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. doc, i'll go to you first. if there was a feeling of tone
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deafness in washington related to what the markets wanted, maybe they got what they wanted at least a little bit today seeing the reaction in stocks. >> nothing focuses the mind like the gallows and what was happening here. they were watching the markets melt down. they were seeing issues like what happened at hostess sadly. that's not a fiscal cliff issue but you can't dance up to the edge and expect people to jump over it with you willingly. so i'm glad that they came out with some if not big smiles at least some conciliatory talk after the meeting today and why the market turned so dramatically. >> is this enough reason, glimmers of hope of the leaders to buy the market? >> i think this is enough to buy what you know fundamentally truly is solid and you look at a name like apple. talked about it for a couple of days. talked with you. i bought it at 540. buying more today. i'll tell you this. i think apple experienced a
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march 2009 moment. what that means is it's a generation alibi. we could walk through later in the show the reasons why but let's answer the question. i'm all in on apple. i think it's significantly higher. i think what's driving it lower here is margin calls, short-term thinking, longer term. this is the buy. >> all right. let's go down to the floor of the stock exchange. the mood down there? what did traders seem to say as you were getting comments from reid, pelosi, boehner and mcconnell? >> trading's so low on the lower end of the trading range, i mentioned yesterday, scott, 1340. we flirted with it today. 1343 the low in the cash. we bounced from there. bounce levels are 1370, 1395. the fact that we're just shy of that, just means that everyone is a little suspect of what's truly going to happen once these fiscal cliff dialogues ratchet up. i would be a seller of these
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bounces. >> what a significant pop seeing in the stock market, guys. throw up the dow industrials on an intraday. in fact, throw up all three intraday charts because you're going to see quite a dramatic reversal. the dow industrials up 48 points. highs of the day, again, down 50 to 60 points or so as the wraps wrapping up and positive comments of the leaders in the room with the president today. unless you have a rally on wall street and let's get to washington to the north lawn of the white house where john harwood is. this seemed to go as well as one could hope thus far, at least. >> reporter: i think so, scott. we are used to seeing the two parties at lugger heads and saw the president opening up the meeting with congress saying it's time to work together. looking for common ground and then to have the bipartisan leadership come out and say very conciliatory things to one another about the commitment both on the spending cut side and the revenue side and the
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growth side, i think that is probably what's causing the market to react and among those who is most important to these discussions is the house speaker john boehner. here's what he had to say when he walked out to the driveway. >> to show our seriousness, we have put revenue on the table as long as it's accompanied by significant spending cuts and while we continue to have revenue on the table, it's going to be incumbent for my colleagues to show the american people that we're serious about cutting spending and solving our fiscal dilemma. >> so he's laying down a challenge to democrats saying, yes, we will go on taxes. you have to show you're willing to go on the big programs. the president took steps in that direction in the summer of 2011. we'll see what steps he's willing to take now but clearly have both parties in a mood to negotiate, in a mood to act and get things done and harry reid
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the senate leader, scott, said we won't wait until the end of the year. >> how much do you think the comments are geared to speak directly to the american people? on the other hand, to speak to the markets which have been shaken in the last week or so because of this? >> both audiences. look, we had an election and when you get in a post-election period, especially when a president like barack obama has won in a significant way, convincing way, certainly, in the electoral college, you have a mood that both parties are ready to put behind some of the fighting that we're so accustomed to and get down to real business. december 31st deadline gives them all the more motivation to do that and reassuring the markets and the public they're going to do something is uppermost on both their minds. >> thanks so much. john harwood on the north lawn of the white house. the major averages do a swift reversal. the dow's only up 30 points but put that in context, down 50 to 60 points not that long ago and
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seen on wall street as a result of these talks wrapping up and the comments of our congressional leaders following then you have a dramatic reve e reversal on wall street. sim simon? >> i think we have moved in to selling the pops opposed to buying in to the dips and sort of strategy to be doing here and i think the market will continue to be well skittish. >> maybe we're feeling better about this situation but what would really happen if we did go off the fiscal cliff? senior economics reporter steve liesman is following that side of the story. when's the potential economic fallout? >> see it in the markets, scott. you have remarked about this. why? stocks discount earnings. earnings the result of economics. they disagree of falling off the cliff but mean it's recession if we fell off it. so let's talk about some of the economic numbers and some of the jobs numbers here. just come over here and talk about the dollar value.
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$40 billion out of the economy from nondefense cuts. $24 billion in 2013. $108 billion, get rid of the payroll taxes and unemployment insurance. $42 billion for the wealthy and about $300 billion getting rid of it for the lower and middle class. come over here. here's the gdp totals here and what you want to do is take the pencil out and total them. 0.4% from nondefense, defense. 0.7% from the payroll taxes to 1.3. when's the total now? it's 2.9 percentage points less. this means a recession next year. no doubt about it. there was an exercise. lou alexander. was in the private sector. went to treasury. back in the private sector. if they go over the cliff a little bit and mess around, a 1 percentage point impact. okay? from the spending and the tax cuts. get rid of that.
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look at it if they can't do it and all of next year, it's a slope but it comes down and it comes down all the way to what lou says is a 4 percentage point. the cbo says 3. either way it's a big hit, a recession. one more this ing to show you i gdp impact. losing 400,000 jobs from the defense cuts. 400 from nondefense. payrolls $800,000. this is all the way up more than 1.32 million and then the bush tax cuts for the wealthy. this, by the way, the argument why the administration says to get rid of the bush tax cuts. they don't have a lot of bang for the gdp buck. there's a couple ways to play the from an investment standpoint. right? you can bet they make a deal and then the market would be a buy. you make -- you could bet that they mess around for a little while and do that temporary scenario and in which you're up and down or go over the cliff and in which case i don't know where you put your money in that
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sense, scott. >> let's ask the traders. steve will join the conversation here. if you assume that a deal will happen and could be a little bit messy between here and a deal, where do you want to be in the market? >> you want to be defensive. i mentioned before, obviously, apple to me the ultimate defensive play. cheaper then a utility right now. go there. big balance sheet and looking forward potentially in the list of names that you own and i have done this over the last couple of days you move out of the consumer discretionary names, the specialty retailers. auto names. because consumer spending will contract. retail sales are going to contract and i think the larger question would be what does this do to the so-called housing recovery in 2013? >> that's a big problem but i'm breasted in this contrarian play. when's been the history of the apocalypse trade? has it paid to bet against it in march '09? paid for you to bet against the
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apocalypse on the debt ceiling debate? >> leading up to the apocalypse, though, it did pay. >> right. >> but i hear you. betting on it, we have to decide, though, steve is this the apocalypse or is a thousand in the s&p -- >> can i quote art that points the end of the world only happens once. it's a trade to time carefully. >> long on the market and lost 600 -- >> i agree. you felt down, that's right. >> you were hoping for it. >> that's right. >> a dangerous market on both side. it's dangerous to be long because they could screw it up and they have a history of screwing things up until they can't anymore and dangerous to be short. if you continue to get the comments likes of which you got today of boehner, mcconnell, reid and pelosi, you will see the reversal and dangerous to be on the other side. >> and nice to hear them conciliatory on both sides and that it seems like a negotiation, not a threat. that, i think, is why the markets will react positively to
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these kinds of discussions, scott, because what we didn't need was those 2011 july talks where we just looked like fools to the rest of the world for a good 30, 40 days and then we got the debt downgraded. if we can avoid that this time, then we won't see that thousand points in the s&p that grasso was spoke to. >> staples, health care. safe places to be. these guys and gals in d.c. try to figure it out? >> no. i think those are the type of names to avoid at this stage. you continue to go for the quality, pick out the apple. i believe that the housing, the housing market's still intact and so are the reits. something like hca with a 5% yield in it. specialty trust. just be very, very cautious and take profits and bring cash in to the play. it's very volatile between now and christmas. >> a question, scott, if the traders are thinking of this in the kind of dual modality?
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do you have a play on the cliff and what would the bet be if i'm betting on the direction of the economy and then sandy and a perfectly interesting conversation to have right now but not talking about sandy. why? because the hurricane -- >> yesterday with philly fed, though. >> yes. >> which you didn't get -- >> and production today but that would have been a debate as to what the actual direction of the economy is without the distortion of sandy. >> you get back from sandy in q1. you get the snap back. we had the conversation offset before. i think this is a gift to buy the quality names. and if we could just get to the point where the market is not looking at all equities as in need of going down and say, this is a quality company that can withstand some of the odds in the market. >> the problems, joe, as a trader, 70% of the market trades
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with the overall market. >> absolutely. that's the point. let's get to a place where that's not the scenario. >> i hear you. this could be the gift to keep giving. >> or taking. >> absolutely. >> if this is volatile. i don't know if it was john harwood focusing on the comments saying that we can make get it done sooner. my information from the information administration is using it right up to the edge. >> reid's comments not something where we wait until the last minute. >> these are facts, scott. they have to come up with an agreement and then scored by the cbo and voted on by congress. >> but steve, you don't need a deal to make a trade. am i right about this? >> you can go back. it could be fixed retroactively. i think leading in to it without tax policy clarity is asking for a nightmare going in the first of the year. >> if you have a credible framework for a deal, communicate it to the market to
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see a reaction in stocks. >> you could but people don't deal with tax policy with a credible deal but hard facts. black and white. i don't know if you've been audited. i'm sure they wouldn't take a credible deal as a blackhawk and white answer to the irs. >> scott, the trading slogan for years, when they're yelling, you are selling. when they are crying, you are buying. >> we're crying for the leaders the rise above and maybe they're finally listening. thank you, steve. is there be the tom in sight for america's most valuable company and amazon's valuation is steep and a key business doesn't make money but is there reasons to be bullish on that guy? we're watching the price of oil as tensions rise in the middle east and the fire engulfs a rig off the l la coast.
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well, if itmr. margin?margin. don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball. that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know.
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all right. welcome back to the halftime show. want to show you the market. already a day already and not quite 12:30. what a reversal you are seeing on your screen here and that big reversal coming following the president's meeting today with congressional leaders on the fiscal cliff. it is only the first step. it is only the first day. but at least a conciliatory tone of both sides of the aisle leading to a big reversal on wall street. there's where we stand right now and watching what's happening in oil up about a buck a barrel right now just north of $86. let's go to sharon epperson right now with the latest on the other story we have been following, the rig fire off the coast of louisiana. >> the fire is extinguished according to the coast guard and no spillage of oil from that explosion. but we are continuing the follow this because initially it said wti oil futures, a spike on the
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news there had been an explosion in the shallow waters about 25 miles off the coast of louisiana. in the gulf of mexico. and this is not the same type of deepwater rig of the spill in 2010 but it is, of course, something that's heightened the alertness of the people in the area to these oil incidents and automatically had a reaction in the u.s. oil price in particular and seen prices supported already on when's happening in the gaza strip, the escalation of fighting there. that's certainly supportive of prices and an expiration today of the december contract and often leads to volatility so a lot to watch in the oil market and hearing that fires have been extinguished from the fire of the oil rig and no spillage of oil in to the gulf of mexico. back the you. >> sharon, thanks so much for us on the oil trade. let's bring in john killdo you have and the biggest surprise in
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the saga over the last several days is that oil didn't spike more from gaza. >> that's right, scott. a real push-pull going on right now between the economic outlook for next year particularly for oil demand and demand ratcheted down by the major organizations that track it. and, of course, i think the response to the gaza situation is reasonable because, of course, there's no direct oil involved but all about hamas and a proxy for iran and where do we go from here if anywhere? >> give me the read of weaker demand as the global economy is teetering and then you have the tensions in the middle east. who wins in the direction of oil? >> typically a situation like gaza is fleeting. it will come down, not last. i doubt it to will escalate but beyond that, look, the eurozone going through recession is a big hit on the outlook for oil. the japanese economy i think is something overlooked to a degree
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and sharp electronics to get a bailout of the japanese government and a lot to be argued against oil above $95 a barrel any time soon. >> we're following the oil markets for many, many years. december 12th, will opec cut? should they cut? >> i don't think they'll cut although i am hear rumblings the saudis leaning towards maybe final ri reining in production, not having an open spigot policy they have had but i think it's too early to turn around just yet and things as you have been talking about could look better in the first quarter particularly here in the u.s. to enable a cut then. i think december 12th is too soon. >> given the push-pull you talk about, is it safe to buy oil stocks? >> i think that the hit they have taken as of late makes them particularly attractive and geo political trouble next year. netanyahu said as much in the
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u.n. next summer is his red line and tensions will be high. the economies will be improving and constructive argument for latest next year. >> of the three here between shell and oxy and total, which one is the best? >> ox xi. they have a great libyan exposure. you have an international flavor and plus the hedge fund subdivision within them, former trader of citigroup in there and added there. >> good to see you. >> thank you. >> john kilduff for us. brian, what do you see? >> take a look at best buy. it was the worst performer. now the second worst on extremely strong volume. there were rumors that might pull the stock and sell it. and the new cfo with a bonus but as you see the intraday charts, seeing these, scott.
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still down 6% and locks like coming back to the flat line. look at apple in the same thing. obviously, people getting lifted by the markets but still the second worst performer in the s&p. thank you. would you do anything with best buy here? >> i would. i believe they'll be able to orchestrate something. yes, but i would do it in john's world and options and not equitiequit equities. >> to give yourself -- >> absolutely. >> i got you. coming up, three retailers, three big stock moves. which one is worth buying? our traders break it down. are investors want to get hit by a wave of special dividends? we have a list of companies that could be on the verge of rewarding the shareholders early. uh, i'm in a timeout because apparently
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today. you can see the reversal. about to go positive. this is a stock that as you know has been pretty much in free fall since the high of $705 in september. today, dropping below $500 billion in market cap for the first time in an awfully long time. it's obviously approaching that once again but still below that key $500 billion level. we have brian white of topeka capital on the phone with us, an analyst that covers the stock. he probably has the highest price target on the street, as well with 1,111. should we be worried with apple here? buying it at $600 i sure as hell would be worried. >> yeah. you know, this selloff to me is completely unwarranted. and very shocking. it's driven more in my view by fiscal cliff concerns, tax concerns, much more than fundamentals. so i think this is absolutely insane. you've got a company here right
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now selling at seven times year. a company that delivered 82% growth per year for 8 years and has the best product portfolio ever. >> but brian, i mean, i got you. right? unwarranted and shocking doesn't make me feel better if i bought the stock 50 to 100 to $200 higher than where it is now. when can you tell us when this stock is going to right the ship? because of the reasons you just mentioned it should. >> fundamentals are intact. we have to follow the trends here. you have a market that's obviously very nervous. you have got a stock position that investors have gains in and paring back. not everyone owned apple. many investors missed apples, embarrassingly missed apple going from $365 last invest to $705 this summer.
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this is the chance. if you missed it, this is the opportunity. could there be a little bit more downside? always possible. but the risk reward is so positive here. if you missed it, this is your chance. >> good to talk to you. thank you forli that reasonable judge, and john alluded to it, that there were several margin calls and liquidations of hedge funds over skis in apple and i know a number of hedge funds that have in excess of 15% waiting in the stock and understandable. look. i think what happened is apple is kind of a leverage capital play on the equity market. and just as at 700 it was at the absolute peak in terms of funds inflows in to the name. in the last two weeks, it's been the polar opposite. acted as an atm machine for hedge funds, to raise cash.
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i think this is perhaps close to a generational opportunity in the stock. >> that's what joe called it earlier. he bought it, as well. >> i meant joe. i thought it was john. >> this is joe. is this happening and not in any sense to be put forth to you in the fashion of a rumor but look from apple's perspective. they have all the capital on the balance sheet. goldman sachs in research notes always said that is the put underneath the market. why not a special dividend here down around 500 bucks? why not the buyback? isn't this the right time? >> it is back in place, joe. >> okay. >> what they should do is accelerate the buyback and a rumor of that in the last 24 hours. i wouldn't be surprised if they are. secondly, i would think it shows much greater confidence in the sustainability of the company's profits and roe if they significantly expanded their
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regular dividend to $15 or $20. and street insider actually have a point towards that end this morning. >> doug, let me interrupt you for a second with a quick comment on the developments out of washington today. are you feeling more confident about the possibility of a year-end rally in stocks given what you heard from the congressional leaders? >> yeah. they're being emotional about this. i feel very strongly, even more strongly now, that the market's fears of a fiscal cliff are really overblown. obviously, both the republicans and democrats came out of the meeting with president obama in a conciliatory fashion. also, what hasn't been discussed is remember obama made a statement of a $1.6 trillion
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statement? one of his aides yesterday afternoon and no one really talked about it reduced it to $1 trillion. i think that is fiscal cliff approaching $600 billion plus will be whittled away to under let's say $125 billion to $225 billion and won't create that much drag. the increased hirings, higher capital spending, that will result in a compromise. the business sector is pent up, not spent up. i expect a framework to be put in place where debt will be reduced by excess of $3 trillion over 10 years and good for the capital markets and this is one of those opportunities like we saw in the summer -- >> and then this is a big turn, doug, i mean, to put it in context and i got to go but this is a big turn for a guy bearish for a while, since summer. >> damn right. >> all right. good to have you on the show. thanks so much. we continue to follow the move
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higher in stocks. we are at the highs of the day right now. s&p 500 up. nasdaq's rallied. the dow rallied on the developments today. there's a look at the charts. we are going to talk google. google wireless. wow. company reportedly wants to power the android smartphones with its own cellular network. is it a sell signal for investors? we'll talk special dividends, as well. who could issue one? what company should you be looking at? ♪ [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are,
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i outlined a framework that deals with reforming our tax code and reforming our spending. and i believe that the framework that i have outlined in our meeting today is consistent with the president's call for a fair and balanced approach. >> that was speaker boehner, more conciliatory tone out of d.c. today and pushed the stocks to the highs of the day. see's what's happening in the
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s&p 500 now. we are at the highs of the day across the board. should you be buying the fiscal freak-out? john staltfuss joins us, welcome to "halftime." john, can you hear me? >> i can hear you. >> all right. i can hear you, as well. >> okay. >> glad me worked that out. you haven't been as sort of caught up in the hysteria as many others have and urging people to buy the market. maybe you got what you wanted today. >> i believe so. i think the realization is clearly on the part of lawmakers if they come out of this with a positive legacy, what they need to do is come to agreement that the word conciliatory i think is key to all of this. all sides could lose if an agreement isn't arrived upon and i think for investors the big thing is to realize this comes in different pieces. it's not going to be all done at once. the main thing is to be moving
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in the right direction. >> do you really believe that your s&p target for year's end so we have another six weeks to go, 1450. we have 90 more points to get on the s&p to get close to that. can we get there? >> i think we can based on what we're seeing but i don't think every day from here forward will be a click to the upside but we're moving in the right direction. the concept is one where i think we avoid the draconian cuts and taxations of the fiscal cliff and things are layered in more than likely. with both sides giving up some of what they would likely have in a perfect world. >> where would i want to be in the market if i believe what you're saying? >> well, if you believe what i'm saying, you would like to be looking at technology, consumer discretionary and financials. some of the better performers this year with that cyclical
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exposure is what you are looking for because this would be good for the business cycle, good for the economy, conciliatory agreement would be good, and then from a perspective of where do you go to be a contrarian? looking out even further, you'd probably want to start acquiring stocks in the sectors like energy and materials. >> interesting. john, good to have you on the show. thank you for coming on. >> thanks for having me. >> simon baker, what do you think about the picks? discretionary and financials and technology and most of it predicated on something positive out of d.c. >> yeah. i like the financials and energy and housing. not so much the condition summer names over there. it's pretty big target, 1585 next year so it'd stick with the technology and financials. >> why not discretionary? getting a deal in washington, wouldn't those stocks shoot higher? >> well, okay. if you get a deal in washington,
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yes. but that's predicated on getting a deal. either way taxes will be higher and middle class suffer and the stocks will not really ben fate right now. >> energy and financials, are they on your radar? >> if i'm going energy, i'm going emps but as simon said, taxes have to go up on everybody and not enough money so i think the market is either going to move sideways or lower but you have to buck the trend. yahoo! in a down market nothing but move up and stay with the name like this. >> up like 12% i think. >> exactly. it's a turnaround story so people aren't connecting that with fiscal cliff. they're not connecting that with global growth just now. she's done an excellent job and people putting in a name like that. >> there's yahoo! shares highs of the day today, as well. wow. moving to their highest levels in an awfully long time based on that year to date chart. all right. much more on the way. we'll have many more trades as
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we watch the markets move higher. plus, hitting another cliff hanger trade. stocks that could offer big payouts before the end of the year. would apple be one of them? as some suggest they should do. more up next. the millions of men who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer,
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today on "power lunch" for a friday, all smiles after the meeting at the white house but does it change the game? will the smiles still be there? a week, a month from now. a top fidelity executive on the money moves to consider as the fiscal cliff approaches. staggering new figures on the amount of money two big entertainment brands raked in in the first hours on sale. is there a way for you to play it? and what's next for the twinkie? hostess in a labor standout kill our favorite sponge cake with cream filling? very latest today on "power." now back to scott and more "fast half." thank you. let's go to brian shactman watching shares of facebook. >> lock-up scmock-up. up, last week, 22%. even with the feared 800 million
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shares coming to market, it's had a heck of a run. over 23 bucks a share now. back the you. >> i'm glad that shactman said that about the lock-up. everybody thought that when you had that many shares potentially coming to market that this stock was going to hit the skids again. and it was up huge, more than 10%, i think, that day. here you go, doc, up more than 23 bucks. >> kudos to them that called exactly this scenario here on this show or the 5:00 show. >> ennis. >> tanner, too. kudos to you. >> there it is exactly. keep it in the pocket. >> i will. >> i like to thank my dentist for talking about facebook last woke. >> the shorts have been screaming. >> thank you, dr. j! >> very welcome. hope the check's in the mail. >> take a check, speaking of checks, on apple, as well, today, because that's a sfapt story. this stock has been in free fall as you know pretty much since september when it hit that high
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of $705. apple went positive while we were on the air today and there it still sits in positive territory. a great trade if you got in as joe did, as doug kass did. joe, you saw something, pulling the trigger. >> it's interesting. in the break i checked twitter and keith will tell you how important understanding twitter is. he is right. it's the new tape and the amount of negative feedback that i'm receiving for saying i bought apple indicates to me there's folks betting on a $500 put. >> they were too long apple and too short facebook. you have to give it the two or three day rule before you jump in and allocate new money to the two trades. i would not be buying apple off this pop nor buying, you know, facebook at this point. they have to reverse at some point and probably going to happen the next two or three days. wait for a conviction before you convert. >> now you got to wait. wait for two days.
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>> glad you said this. >> wait for two days. anyone that buys it on this spike, joe, you never would have done it. would you? >> i have. >> he did buy it. >> i've been buying. >> somebody give joe ointment and ice. he might need it. >> all right. well, the possible change in dividend tax policy at the end of the year is causing several companies to initiate special payouts and our next guest says we could see a flood of activity in the next month. director of research with market. will, good to have you back on the show. >> nice to be here. >> is that what this is all about, getting ahead of the cliff? >> yeah, we are seeing a special dividend bonanza basically since obama won the election. we have seen 74 special dividends announced this quarter which is the same as what was announced the last time these dividend tax was potentially going to roll off the relief in fourth quarter of 2010 and predicting another 30 companies
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and pretty positive in these gloomy times. and we can look at what kind of companies -- >> yeah. i mean, you guys have made -- pardon my interruption but you guys made good calls on this. who are we talking about? >> the great forecast team announced two days ago, pick lots of others and a big list and expecting potentially somebody like sea bond with a special dividend. alexander is an interesting one. we're predicting $122 special dividend this quarter. be nice to get that one right, too. yeah. pretty interesting place to have a little look. >> we even had, you know, some people on the desk today talk about apple as a possibility through no ideas information, obviously. may be right for something like that. could you see something like that? >> well, what we're looking at is the kinds of companies that sort of change their course of
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action in the last quarter of 2010. those companies tenned to be those with high insider ownership and it's intuitive. they're paying themselves special dividend at special 15% rate and that doesn't really include apple because i don't think it has that high insider ownership but apple we are predicting to raise the dividend. >> will, thanks very much. so let's trade this. joey, i mean, looking at names, would you buy a stock based on the likely to pay out a special dividend, mastercard, general dynamics, fed rated? >> it's not -- do. i mean i do and have in 2012 looked a little bit more at companies that i believe i get a good yield. that's one of the reasons why i have owned verizon. but i also don't think on the other side of whatever this compromise could be for the fiscal cliff that these dividend paying stocks as pete alluded to
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the other day are going to guess decimated. i disagree with that thesis. i think dividend payers will continue to work in what i see as a bond friendly environment for the economy. >> if the dividend rate does change and it is impactful to the change, empirical data shows that 3 months to 6 months they underperform non-dividend payers by 50%. >> grasso, do you have trades on it? >> i bought wynn for a growth story, not a special dividend. what's important to viewers is to know that once it goes ex-div, they do not have to hold it until the payable date. if they're trading off this, it is one thing. if they're investing off this, totally different. the dividend plays, 402 out of 500 s&p companies pay a dividend, the most since '99. any change to the dividend status is impactful to the overall market. >> what's your microsoft? watch out for that.
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>> more on the market move, moving higher. plus casino company makes a huge bet and it is paying off for shareholders today. so will others follow suit. lots more halftime report straight ahead. [ female announcer ] the next generation of investing technology is now within your grasp with the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. e-trade 360 is the world's first investing homepage that shows you where all your investments are and what they're doing with free streaming quotes, news, analysis
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welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives. welcome back. u.s. dollar is on track for its best week against the yen since late june. it comes after the leader of japan's liberal democratic party called for aggressive easing
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steps. will the yen continue its plunge and how should you trade it? let's bring in boris from bk asset management. it has been all about the yen this week. give me your trade. >> it's been the breakout king of the week. but i think like the past it is going to break the hearts of longs again for two reasons. one, i think the whole fiscal cliff story is pretty much a story of going down austerity politics. that's been a disaster policy path for everywhere else it's been tried so i do think it is going to weigh on aggregate demand. if that's the case the fed is going to overweight qe, which means it will offset anything the japanese do. to me the dollar/yen is going to be a sell in a near term. i want to be a seller here at 80.50. if it breaks 80.50 with a stop at 81.50. if it runs away, then i'm not hurt. but if it turns around it is going to come back and take out all those stops for those who were long hoping to take it
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again. watch "money in motion" tonight every friday night on cnbc at 5:30. let's do "pops & drops." the biggest movers in midday trading. the j.m. smucker company dropping 3%. >> in line quarter gross margins sl slip a little bit. >> auto desk came out with earnings that beat on the bottom line but missed terribly on the revenue and guidance. but the fact that this stock is up is a tell. think you want to own it. >> pulte group popping. >> no. no real major news out with the whole housing sector is very strong today. >> i'm afraid if there are significant cuts, tenet will be the one to suffer. it's been a great performer but i'd look out. wait until you find out what the u.n. just said about iran's nuclear program. first, final trades next on halftime.
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baker, give me a final trade. >> lowe's report earnings on monday. looking very nice. >> that would be one to watch for sure. grasso? >> i lightened up dramatically on a lot of my positions. 1,400 in the s&p. only one i'd be a buyer of is yahoo!. >> part of simon baker's name -- baker-hughes. i'm buying it. >> tjx. >> i thought you were going to say apple again. afraid to get more hate mail on twitter? >> some guy made me a great offer. kudos to him. >> catch what's going on tonight, "money in motion's"

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